Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
